Never Let a Crisis Go To Waste: The Future for Commercial Aviation Andrew Charlton1 Charles Stotler2 1. Current Picture for Aviation Industry: Effects of COVID-19 Crisis; 2. Legal Foundations of Aviation; 3. Back to COVID-19: Outlook and the Four Possible Scenarios; 3.1. Scenario 1: Business as usual; 3.2. Scenario 2: Chicago/Open Skies, with caveats; 3.3. Scenario 3: Return to Chicago/Bermuda; 3.4. Scenario 4: A new beginning; 4. Conclusions: Better Angels of Our Nature. 1. CURRENT PICTURE FOR AVIATION INDUSTRY: EFFECTS OF COVID-19 CRISIS It is neither profound nor particularly insightful to note that the COVID-19 pandemic has changed everything for the travel and tourism industries. The effects are systemic, and all actors from the transport sector, to hotels, restaurants and tourist venues are suffering from lockdowns, mandatory furloughs and the difficulties of trying to maintain some semblance of normalcy whilst working from home, when possible. One industry that cannot by its very nature mitigate many of the difficulties arising out of the crisis is the aviation industry, with 3.5 million flights cancelled through 30 June and, as estimated by IATA, 314B US$ of lost revenues3. Estimates on passenger traffic in the wake of the crisis indicate reductions ranging from 77% to 95% in countries around the world. 1 Andrew Charlton, FRAeS, is Managing Director of Aviation Advocacy, an independent air transport strategic and government affairs consultancy based in Switzerland. 2 Charles Stotler is an Associate with Aviation Advocacy and Co-Director of the Center for Air and Space Law at the University of Mississippi School of Law. 3 Brian Pearce, “COVID-19 Updated Impact Assessment” IATA (14 April 2020) https://www.iata.org/en/iata-repository/publications/economic-reports/covid-fourth-impactassessment/.
RkJQdWJsaXNoZXIy MTE4NzM5Nw==