high in Veneto, Lombardy, Tuscany and Lazio, some of the most touristic regions in Italy. The most important causes that will generate a decline in the total volumes of the Italian and foreign demand are expected to be the following: vacation amount reduction, long haul travel risk increase, spending power reduction, booking window decrease, weakening of the brokerage system, information on the resurgence of the epidemic and contraction of the offer. With attention to the hotel sector, overall, a drop in demand is estimated between 45 and 55%, depending on the evolution and duration of the lockdown measures. The estimates reported for the scenarios aforementioned would bring the Italian hotel system up to the level of the late 1970s. It is estimated a total loss of presences included between 126 million and 153 million compared to the average hotel volumes expected for 2020 on base 2018-2019. To conclude, the crisis caused by the coronavirus will certainly have very serious negative consequences on the Italian economy and tourism. To face it, it will be necessary to design suitable scenarios to predict the effects in the different market and tourism sectors. However, as we have seen throughout the outbreak, not all countries have been affected in the same way. Those that have been most efficient in predicting the outbreak and its containment are the same ones that have been able to better cope with the crisis. We are in the phase in which accurate forecasts must be proposed in order to activate all resources, especially local ones, so as to contain the negative effects of the crisis. Thank you very much MATTEO COLLEONI Deputy Rector for Sustainability of the University of Milan-Bicocca
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