EFFECT ON AFRICAN COUNTRIES 327 patterns are to revert to normal. In a worrying sign, the CEO of one big leasing firm says that even firms with apparently robust balance sheets have asked him to go easy on rent, suggesting at least some are worried about survival. If more airlines start to fail, that would have knock-on effects throughout the broader aviation industry. Even before President Trump’s prohibition, American airport operators were expecting to lose at least 3.7B $ between them, this year. Weaker airports could come under pressure and may not survive, making some regions less accessible even if conditions eventually improve. Airbus and Boeing are making fewer planes and look likely to rethink plans for ramping up production of narrow-body airliners. Falling profits will weigh on efforts to invest in new climate-friendlier models. Even leasing firms, which have plenty of capital and could repurchase planes from straitened airlines and then lease them back, could be hurt if widespread insolvencies flood the market with second-hand aircraft, depressing leasing rates. Perhaps the most significant uncertainty concerns shifting attitudes to business and leisure travel. If corporations detect that they can operate with fewer executives flitting around the globe, and holidaymakers get a taste for “staycations” or trains, compounded by “flight shame” over aeroplanes’ carbon emissions, the industry may struggle to keep doubling passenger volumes every 15 years, as it has done for the past three decades. The coronavirus is already proving to be quite the braking parachute. It may arrest momentum more dramatically still. 2. WHAT EFFECT DOES THE CORONAVIRUS PANDEMIC HAVE ON AFRICAN AVIATION? The global aviation industry worldwide is sagging under the weight of the current coronavirus pandemic, and Africa is no exception. With strong links to China, both for tourism and trade, African airlines are somewhat more exposed to the current disruption than people might realise. 2.1. Disruption in African Aviation Back at the start of March, the New York Times reported that disruption from coronavirus could cost African airlines some 40 million dollars in revenue. That was based on an estimated issued by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) which, at the end of February, had estimated losses to be in the region of 29 billion dollars, globally. Given the continuous spread of the virus, and with
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