324 LEGAL IMPACTS OF COVID-19 IN THE TOURISM INDUSTRY estimated in February, when the coronavirus was still believed to be a Chinese problem rather than a global one. Since IATA’s revision, things have gotten worse: lucrative transatlantic routes, which earned airlines around 20 billion dollars in sales last year, have been hit by President Donald Trump’s 30-day ban on most flights to America from Europe, which took effect on 14 March; Delta, an American carrier, says it may have to trim international schedules by 40%, up from a 25% reduction before the ban; and Lufthansa, Europe’s biggest carrier, had already cut flights in half for April. As more countries impose travel restrictions, the German airline may need to thin schedules by 90%, reckon analysts at Bernstein, a research firm. Others that serve smallish domestic markets and rely on global interconnections may need to shut down altogether. Many airline CEOs cling to the hope that global passenger numbers will follow the same trajectory as in the wake of previous disruptions, such as the terrorist attacks of 9/11 or the global financial crisis of 2007-09 (see chart 2). After a few months of disarray, travel patterns then reverted to normal and growth resumed.
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