146 LEGAL IMPACTS OF COVID-19 IN THE TOURISM INDUSTRY compared with 2019 figures. Putting this into context, the UNWTO underlines that in 2009, on the back of the global economic crisis, international tourist arrivals declined by 4%, while the SARS outbreak of 2003 led to a decline of just 0.4% that year. However, the UNWTO points out that these numbers are based on the latest developments as the global community faces up to an unprecedented social and economic challenge and should be interpreted with caution, given the extreme uncertain nature of the current crisis4. The Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development estimates a 45% decline in international tourism in 2020, which could rise to 70% if recovery is delayed until September5. Domestic tourism is also heavily affected by containment measures. Νevertheless, a quicker recovery is expected with a critical role to play during the recovery phase. The World Travel and Tourism Council predicts that, in 2020, the travel and tourism market could lose 75 million jobs worldwide and 10 million jobs in Europe6. One of the economic sectors most affected by the COVID-19 crisis is the aviation and tourism industry. The unavoidable measures to contain the COVID-19 pandemic are severely restricting public life and bringing the aviation and tourism sectors to an almost complete standstill. As far as the aviation industry is concerned, not only the airlines but also the MROs (maintenance, repair and operations), aircraft leasing companies and aircraft manufacturers are affected. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) published an analysis showing that airlines may burn through 61 billion dollars of their cash reserves during the second quarter of 2020, ending 30 June, while posting a quarterly net loss of 39 billion dollars. This means a 61 billion dollar deterioration in the industry’s cash position in the second quarter of 2020, in a scenario in which severe travel restrictions last for three months and financial relief is not provided. Airlines are faced with refunding the sold but unused tickets, as a result of massive cancellations resulting from government-imposed restrictions on travel. The second quarter liability for these is a colossal 35 billion dollars7. 4 World Tourism Organisation, International tourist arrivals could fall by 20-30% in 2020, 26 March 2020. Available in: https://www.unwto.org/news/international-tourism-arrivals-could-fall-in-2020 (accessed on 10/04/2020). 5 Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development, Tackling coronavirus (COVID‑19) - Contributing to a global effort, Covid-19 Tourism Policy Responses, 17th April 2020. Available in: https://www.oecd.org/coronavirus/en/ (accessed on 25/04/2020). 6 World Travel & Tourism Council, Coronavirus Brief, 8 April 2020. Available in: https://www.wttc.org/- /media/files/wttc-coronavirus-brief-external-0804.pdf?la=en (accessed on 15/04/2020). 7 International Air Transport Association, Airlines Facing Rapid Cash Burn, IATA Press Release No: 23, 31 March 2020. Available in: https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/pr/2020-03-31-01/?fbclid=IwAR0nm1V aPZ9PimCwXgcAJcSbYbtB-CfuxOg63mheby5ErsnLxCsMHL1LTjw (accessed on 26/04/2020).
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