446 COMPETITION LAW IN TOURISM This is without prejudice to the fact that reality has been so dynamic that the quantitative data hereunder should be considered specifically as pertaining to the point in time when it was made public. According to the World Tourism Organization81, “the COVID-19 crisis has impacted on travel like no other event in history before”, and between the end of January 2020 and April 2020, 96% of all destinations worldwide implemented measures restricting travel due to the COVID-19 outbreak. Pursuant to information provided by Bloomberg in 29 May 202082, it is estimated that global air passengers will drop 55% in 2020 and, considering that any recovery will depend of several factors such as how governments ease travel restrictions, the willingness of passengers to fly again and the extent of the economic damage inflicted by the COVID-19 outbreak, the aviation industry will not recover the standing it had in 2019 until 2023. On International Air Transport Association (“IATA”)’s industrial financial forecasts83 of July 2020, featuring estimates and outlooks incorporating the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic, the global airline industry is expected to lose a record of $ 84 billion in 2020, which is 3.2 times higher than in the global financial crisis of 2008. Presently, it is not possible to exclude how this unprecedented impact is likely to extend to 2021. The cautious behaviour of travellers was by then expected to continue affecting travel demand and, therefore, a loss of around $16 billion is estimated to occur in 2021. On its 27 May 2021 Conclusions, the Council states that, as a result of the ongoing COVID-19 crisis “the tourism ecosystem has the highest investment needs among the 14 industrial ecosystems defined by the European Commission and the lowest confidence indicator”84. It is, therefore, expected that the COVID-19 crisis introduces important paradigm shifts in the years to come, in particular concerning the more prominent role of governments when supporting the domestic economies and the important green and digital transformations which will impact almost every sector of the economy. 81 In “Covid-19 related travel restrictions, a global review for Tourism – first report as of 16 April 2020”, prepared by UNWTO, Sustainable Development of Tourism Department, available at: https://www.unwto.org/ covid-19-travel-restrictions. 82 Available at: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-05-29/air-traffic-won-t-recover-for-at-leastthree-years-s-p-says. 83 Available at: www.iata.org/economics. 84 See above note 10. The 14 industrial ecosystems are identified in the Annual Single Market Report 2021, SWD(2021) 351.
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